Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
