Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
